As the Champions League knockout phase play-off begins on February 18, 2026, Qarabağ FK hosts Newcastle United in Baku for the first leg. This marks a historic moment, with Qarabağ becoming the first Azerbaijani side to reach this stage, while both teams are debutants in the play-offs. Newcastle, meanwhile, faces Azerbaijani opposition for the very first time, adding an element of novelty to this tie in the 2025/26 season.
Recent form details for both teams are unavailable, so attention turns to other factors. In the Champions League league phase, Qarabağ sits in 22nd place with 10 points, while Newcastle holds 12th position with 14 points, suggesting a slight edge for the English side based on group stage performance.
Key players and injuries will play a significant role. For Qarabağ, forwards Camilo Duran and Leandro Andrade stand out, with Duran netting 4 goals and Andrade adding 3 in the Champions League so far. However, the team will miss goalkeeper Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev due to an injury sustained in mid-November, along with ineligibility issues for Jeremie Gnali and Ramil Sheydayev. Newcastle boasts threats in Anthony Gordon, who has scored 6 goals and provided 2 assists, and Harvey Barnes with 5 goals and 1 assist. Yet, they face challenges with several players out: Bruno Guimarães (muscle/thigh injury), Joelinton (groin/thigh, returning February 20), Tino Livramento (hamstring/thigh, returning March 11), Fabian Schär (broken ankle, returning April 10), Emil Krafth (knee, returning February 20), while Lewis Miley, Yoane Wissa, and Sven Botman are doubtful due to thigh, knock, and back issues, respectively.
Tactically, without any prior head-to-head meetings between the sides, predictions are based on expected lineups. Qarabağ is predicted to line up with Kochalski in goal, a defense of Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, and Cafarquliyev, midfielders Bicalho and Jankovic, and attackers Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir, and Duran. Newcastle might feature Pope in goal, defenders Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, and Hall, midfielders Ramsey and Tonali, and forwards Elanga, Willock, Gordon, and Woltemade. This setup suggests Qarabağ could adopt a compact, home-defensive approach, while Newcastle may look to exploit width and counter-attacks, though the lack of history makes outcomes uncertain.
Looking ahead, Newcastle could hold a slight advantage given their higher points tally in the group stage, but Qarabağ's home ground and knockout-stage inexperience for both teams mean the match is finely balanced. It's leaning towards a closely contested affair, with the possibility of an upset if Qarabağ capitalizes on their key attackers.
