As the Champions League knockout play-offs reach their second leg on 2026-02-24, Newcastle United host Qarabağ at St James' Park with a commanding 6-1 aggregate lead from the first leg on 2026-02-18. This tie, part of the 2025/2026 season, sees Newcastle aiming to secure their spot in the next round after a resounding away victory, which stands as their biggest win margin in the competition. Despite the advantage, Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has cautioned that the tie is not over, emphasizing the need for focus against a resilient Qarabağ side performing well in their domestic league.
Turning to recent form, detailed records for Newcastle United are unavailable, so we focus on what is known. Qarabağ have shown positive momentum with two recent wins in the Azerbaijani Premier League: a 1-0 victory away to İmişli FK on 2026-02-14 and a 2-1 win away to Şamaxı on 2026-02-10. This suggests Qarabağ are in competitive shape domestically, sitting second in their league with 45 points from 20 matches (14 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). In the Champions League, both teams are in a similar mid-table position, with Newcastle around 12th on 8 points from four wins, two draws, and two losses in the league phase.
Key players and injuries will play a significant role in this encounter. For Newcastle, Anthony Gordon is a standout figure, having scored four goals in the first leg and breaking a club record, making him a player to watch for his in-form status. However, the team faces several absences: Emil Krafth is ruled out until 2026-06-01 due to a knee injury, Bruno Guimarães and Fabian Schär are sidelined until 2026-04-11 with thigh and ankle/foot injuries respectively, Tino Livramento is out until 2026-03-14 with a thigh issue, and Yoane Wissa, Sven Botman, and Lewis Miley are at 50% and 25% fitness levels respectively, potentially affecting depth. Malick Thiaw is suspended for this match after a booking in the first leg. On the Qarabağ side, Camilo Durán and Leandro Andrade have been key attackers in the Champions League league phase, offering threats without suspension risks.
In terms of head-to-head and potential tactics, the teams have only met once, in the first leg on 2026-02-18, where Newcastle dominated with a 6-1 win. With no prior encounters, this fixture lacks historical precedent, but Newcastle's aggressive approach in that match could influence their strategy here. Qarabağ might need to push forward to overturn the deficit, but without specific lineup predictions, it's hard to pinpoint exact tactical setups. Newcastle could look to exploit their home advantage and maintain defensive solidity given their lead.
Looking ahead, Newcastle are leaning towards progression due to their substantial aggregate advantage, but Qarabağ could mount a challenge if they replicate their recent domestic form. A Newcastle win seems likely given the context, though the visitors might find scoring opportunities. Overall, the hosts are favored to advance, but football's unpredictability means anything could happen in this knockout stage.
Recommended Bets
Bet 1 @1.50 — Newcastle to win, based on their dominant 6-1 first-leg result and home advantage.
Bet 2 @1.80 — Over 2.5 goals, given the high-scoring nature of the first leg and Qarabağ's recent attacking form.
Bet 3 @2.00 — Anthony Gordon to score anytime, as he netted four goals in the first leg and is in excellent form.
Odds tend to shorten closer to kickoff — lock in value now.
