As the Champions League Round of 32 second leg kicks off on February 25, 2026, Atalanta face an uphill battle against Borussia Dortmund at the Gewiss Stadium. Dortmund enter with a 2-0 aggregate lead from the first leg, putting pressure on Atalanta to overturn the deficit in this crucial tie. Both teams are vying for a spot in the next round, with Atalanta sitting 15th in the Champions League league phase on 13 points and Dortmund just behind in 17th with 11 points. In their domestic leagues, Atalanta hold third place in Serie A with 50 points, while Dortmund are second in the Bundesliga with 52 points, highlighting their competitive form across competitions.
Turning to recent performances, Atalanta have displayed resilience with three wins in their last four matches, including a 2-1 victory over Napoli and a 3-0 win against Juventus. Their Serie A record shows three wins and two draws in the last five games, suggesting a team capable of strong results despite a recent 0-2 loss to Lazio. Borussia Dortmund, on the other hand, have been inconsistent but effective, drawing 2-2 with RB Leipzig while securing wins against Mainz (4-0), Wolfsburg (2-1), Heidenheim (3-2), and notably, Atalanta in the Champions League first leg (2-0). This form indicates Dortmund's ability to grind out results, even if their defense has shown vulnerabilities.
Key players will likely influence the outcome, with Atalanta relying on striker Gianluca Scamacca, who has contributed two goals and two assists in seven Champions League matches, and midfielder Mario Pasalic for creativity. However, Atalanta are hampered by injuries to Giacomo Raspadori and Charles De Ketelaere, both of whom are sidelined. For Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy stands out with four goals and three assists in nine Champions League games, supported by Julian Brandt's playmaking. Yet, Dortmund's defensive line is weakened, with injuries to Filippo Mane, Emre Can, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Niklas Süle, plus a suspension for goalkeeper Patrick Drewes, potentially exposing them to Atalanta's attacks.
Tactically, both sides are expected to deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Atalanta lining up as Marco Carnesecchi in goal, backed by a defense of Odilon Kossounou, Berat Djimsiti, and Sead Kolasinac, and Dortmund featuring Gregor Kobel in goal with Luca Reggiani, Waldemar Anton, and Ramy Bensebaini at the back. In head-to-head terms, Dortmund have dominated recent meetings, winning two of the last three, including the 2-0 first-leg victory, while Atalanta managed one win. This setup suggests a match where Dortmund might prioritize defending their lead, but Atalanta's balanced approach could lead to an open game.
Looking ahead, Dortmund's aggregate advantage and recent wins make them the favorites to progress, but Atalanta's strong home form and scoring ability could spark a comeback. The prediction leans towards Dortmund advancing, though Atalanta might keep the scoreline tight, potentially leading to a low-scoring affair.
Recommended Bets
Bet 1 @1.50 — Borussia Dortmund to advance; they hold a 2-0 lead and have won two of the last three head-to-heads.
Bet 2 @1.80 — Under 2.5 total goals; the first leg ended 2-0, and both teams' recent forms suggest defensive play with injuries impacting attacks.
Bet 3 @2.00 — Serhou Guirassy to score anytime; he has four goals in the Champions League this season, making him a key threat.
Odds tend to shorten closer to kickoff — lock in value now.
